Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Nurek-Tuyamuyn site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1993-1994

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir
 forecast
m3/sec
470.0
470.0
510.0
526.0
538.0
550.0
566.0
550.0
529.0
557.0
616.0
656.0
677.0
649.0
604.0
474.0
382.0
368.0
Mm3
8447.8
actual
m3/sec
448.3
429.4
522.5
540.1
482.5
508.7
548.2
561.0
539.4
518.3
685.2
599.3
648.1
671.0
575.3
457.8
369.1
414.0
Mm3
8303.6
variance
%
4.6
8.6
-2.5
-2.7
10.3
7.5
3.1
-2.0
-2.0
6.9
-11.2
8.6
4.3
-3.4
4.8
3.4
3.4
-12.5
%
1.7
Mm3
18.7
53.8
41.9
29.7
77.7
113.4
128.7
119.2
109.4
142.8
83.0
136.9
161.9
142.9
162.8
176.8
187.9
144.2
Mm3
144.2
Lateral inflow
 forecast
m3/sec
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
60.0
60.0
60.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
70.0
70.0
70.0
120.0
120.0
120.0
Mm3
1207.0
actual
m3/sec
89.7
75.4
73.7
71.1
66.7
62.2
58.5
55.4
52.3
45.0
40.1
45.2
63.8
106.8
111.0
141.4
140.9
123.5
Mm3
1235.5
variance
%
-12.1
5.7
7.9
11.1
16.6
22.3
2.5
7.7
12.8
10.0
19.8
9.6
8.9
-52.6
-58.6
-17.8
-17.4
-2.9
%
-2.4
Mm3
-8.4
-4.4
1.6
9.3
20.8
36.1
37.4
41.4
48.7
53.0
61.6
66.2
71.5
39.7
11.4
-7.1
-25.2
-28.5
Mm3
-28.5
Water withdrawal, including
forecast
m3/sec
881.5
812.5
765.3
634.4
582.1
512.8
470.5
458.2
473.2
579.8
667.8
677.8
584.5
749.5
807.0
822.4
856.7
846.5
Mm3
10624.9
actual
m3/sec
868.4
801.6
784.5
661.3
606.0
579.4
457.0
436.3
427.0
472.2
529.4
533.4
503.8
596.9
590.3
613.1
622.8
657.1
Mm3
9385.1
variance
%
1.5
1.3
-2.5
-4.2
-4.1
-13.0
2.9
4.8
9.8
18.6
20.7
21.3
13.8
20.4
26.9
25.5
27.3
22.4
%
11.7
Mm3
11.3
20.7
2.5
-20.8
-41.5
-99.0
-87.3
-68.4
-24.4
68.6
188.2
325.4
395.2
527.0
676.8
857.7
1059.8
1239.8
Mm3
1239.8
Tadjikistan
 forecast
m3/sec
253.9
214.1
181.3
153.3
151.1
145.5
128.7
114.5
114.5
109.5
109.5
109.5
109.5
112.5
113.0
130.4
152.2
140.2
Mm3
2224.9
actual
m3/sec
252.2
203.7
180.9
153.1
151.8
153.9
107.6
90.8
79.4
71.9
70.7
71.8
69.8
69.6
69.6
72.3
83.4
103.6
Mm3
1802.0
variance
%
0.7
4.9
0.2
0.1
-0.5
-5.8
16.4
20.7
30.7
34.4
35.5
34.4
36.3
38.1
38.4
44.6
45.2
26.1
%
19.0
Mm3
1.5
10.5
10.8
11.0
10.4
3.1
21.4
41.9
75.2
107.7
141.3
177.1
211.4
248.5
278.5
328.7
388.1
422.9
Mm3
422.9
Turkmenistan
 forecast
m3/sec
330.4
313.2
311.0
296.1
281.0
251.3
232.0
230.0
230.0
230.0
242.0
268.0
306.0
368.0
431.0
474.0
482.0
522.0
Mm3
5050.0
actual
m3/sec
332.0
313.2
310.9
281.9
276.7
266.1
232.3
230.3
230.3
246.0
246.0
246.0
330.0
385.4
391.4
401.0
394.9
380.8
Mm3
4781.1
variance
%
-0.5
0.0
0.0
4.8
1.5
-5.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-7.0
-1.7
8.2
-7.8
-4.7
9.2
15.4
18.1
27.1
%
5.3
Mm3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.3
11.0
14.6
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.0
-12.8
-16.3
4.7
-16.1
-31.1
-3.7
59.4
134.7
268.9
Mm3
268.9
Uzbekistan
 forecast
m3/sec
297.2
285.2
273.0
185.0
150.0
116.0
109.8
113.7
128.7
240.3
316.3
300.3
169.0
269.0
263.0
218.0
222.5
184.3
Mm3
3350.0
actual
m3/sec
284.2
284.7
292.7
226.3
177.5
159.4
117.1
115.2
117.3
154.3
212.7
215.6
104.0
141.9
129.3
139.8
144.5
172.7
Mm3
2802.0
variance
%
4.4
0.2
-7.2
-22.3
-18.3
-37.4
-6.6
-1.3
8.9
35.8
32.8
28.2
38.5
47.2
50.8
35.9
35.1
6.3
%
16.4
Mm3
11.2
11.7
-7.1
-42.7
-66.5
-104.0
-110.3
-111.5
-100.6
-26.3
63.2
143.7
199.8
309.7
402.1
469.6
537.0
548.0
Mm3
548.0
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]