Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Toktagul-Kayrakum site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1993-1994

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir
 forecast
m3/secк
200.0
200.0
200.0
300.0
300.0
300.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
360.0
360.0
360.0
340.0
340.0
340.0
360.0
360.0
360.0
Mm3
5001.7
actual
m3/secк
248.1
302.5
347.9
361.5
390.5
399.9
439.0
482.2
490.7
485.5
523.9
534.2
521.5
605.0
724.6
673.9
575.0
458.5
Mm3
7432.6
variance
%
-24.1
-51.3
-74.0
-20.5
-30.2
-33.3
-25.4
-37.8
-40.2
-34.9
-45.5
-48.4
-53.4
-77.9
-113.1
-87.2
-59.7
-27.3
%
-48.6
Mm3м3
-41.6
-130.1
-270.7
-323.8
-402.0
-488.3
-565.2
-679.4
-813.2
-921.6
-1063.2
-1228.8
-1385.6
-1614.6
-1880.4
-2151.6
-2337.4
-2431.0
Mm3
-2431.0
Lateral inflow
 forecast
m3/secк
374.0
374.0
374.0
373.0
373.0
373.0
344.0
344.0
344.0
376.0
376.0
376.0
413.0
413.0
413.0
410.0
410.0
410.0
Mm3
5994.3
actual
m3/secк
475.0
475.0
475.0
465.0
465.0
465.0
493.0
493.0
493.0
705.0
705.0
705.0
778.0
778.0
778.0
552.0
552.0
552.0
Mm3
9046.9
variance
%
-27.0
-27.0
-27.0
-24.7
-24.7
-24.7
-43.3
-43.3
-43.3
-87.5
-87.5
-87.5
-88.4
-88.4
-88.4
-34.6
-34.6
-34.6
%
-50.9
Mm3м3
-87.3
-174.5
-270.5
-350.0
-429.5
-509.0
-637.7
-766.5
-908.1
-1192.3
-1476.6
-1789.3
-2104.6
-2420.0
-2672.3
-2795.0
-2917.6
-3052.6
Mm3
-3052.6
Water withdrawal, including
forecast
m3/secк
79.6
78.3
57.2
5.3
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
35.0
74.0
105.0
128.0
150.0
151.0
148.2
164.8
194.1
Mm3
1220.5
actual
m3/secк
136.0
142.4
115.6
31.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
22.5
44.5
45.1
45.1
45.1
45.1
43.8
88.7
Mm3
741.5
variance
%
-70.8
-81.9
-102.1
-500.4
-15.6
-20.2
-20.2
-20.2
59.9
82.8
69.6
57.6
64.8
70.0
70.1
69.6
73.4
54.3
%
39.3
Mm3м3
-48.7
-104.1
-159.6
-182.5
-183.2
-184.1
-185.0
-185.9
-177.3
-152.3
-107.8
-50.2
21.4
112.1
185.3
274.4
378.9
479.1
Mm3
479.1
Kyrgyzstan
 forecast
m3/secк
1.8
1.5
1.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.8
2.1
Mm3
9.2
actual
m3/secк
4.7
4.4
4.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
Mm3
13.3
variance
%
-162.2
-190.0
-185.7
-200.0
100.0
                    
100.0
100.0
57.6
%
-44.1
Mm3м3
-2.5
-5.0
-7.5
-8.0
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-7.8
-6.8
-5.2
-4.1
Mm3
-4.1
Tadjikistan
 forecast
m3/secк
7.3
5.8
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
7.0
12.0
15.0
Mm3
48.1
actual
m3/secк
9.0
14.2
10.5
3.8
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
1.2
0.5
1.6
5.2
5.2
6.8
Mm3
52.5
variance
%
-23.3
-144.5
-275.4
                      
68.2
25.3
56.9
55.0
%
-9.1
Mm3м3
-1.5
-8.7
-16.0
-19.3
-20.0
-20.0
-20.0
-20.0
-20.0
-20.0
-20.0
-20.6
-21.6
-22.0
-19.6
-18.1
-12.2
-4.4
Mm3
-4.4
Uzbekistan
 forecast
m3/secк
70.5
71.0
53.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
35.0
74.0
105.0
128.0
150.0
146.0
140.0
151.0
177.0
Mm3
1163.2
actual
m3/secк
122.3
123.9
101.1
27.1
5.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
22.5
43.8
43.9
44.6
43.5
39.9
38.7
81.1
Mm3
675.7
variance
%
-73.4
-74.5
-90.7
-442.6
-5.4
-20.2
-20.2
-20.2
59.9
82.8
69.6
58.3
65.7
70.3
70.2
71.5
74.4
54.2
%
41.9
Mm3м3
-44.7
-90.4
-136.1
-155.3
-155.5
-156.4
-157.2
-158.1
-149.6
-124.5
-80.0
-21.9
50.8
141.9
212.7
299.3
396.3
487.5
Mm3
487.5
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]