Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Kayrakum-Chardara site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1994-1995

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir forecast
m3/sec
400.0
400.0
400.0
400.0
400.0
400.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
700.0
564.0
564.0
564.0
Mm3
9062.0
actual
m3/sec
449.4
504.7
608.4
720.0
729.3
758.0
656.8
531.3
753.3
831.6
876.3
1092.1
1065.8
970.0
953.1
970.0
837.8
660.0
Mm3
12172.6
variance
%
-12.4
-26.2
-52.1
-80.0
-82.3
-89.5
6.2
24.1
-7.6
-18.8
-25.2
-56.0
-52.3
-38.6
-36.2
-72.0
-48.5
-17.0
%
-34.3
Mm3
-42.7
-133.1
-331.2
-607.7
-892.2
-1201.5
-1164.2
-1018.4
-1069.0
-1182.7
-1335.1
-1707.7
-2023.7
-2257.0
-2432.0
-2782.8
-3019.3
-3110.6
Mm3
-3110.6
Lateral inflow forecast
m3/sec
230.0
230.0
230.0
224.0
224.0
224.0
245.0
245.0
245.0
237.0
237.0
237.0
255.0
255.0
255.0
291.0
291.0
291.0
Mm3
3883.9
actual
m3/sec
334.3
334.3
334.3
275.1
275.1
275.1
285.3
285.3
285.3
307.0
307.0
307.0
304.7
304.7
304.7
267.5
267.5
267.5
Mm3
4648.5
variance
%
-45.3
-45.3
-45.3
-22.8
-22.8
-22.8
-16.5
-16.5
-16.5
-29.5
-29.5
-29.5
-19.5
-19.5
-19.5
8.1
8.1
8.1
%
-19.7
Mm3
-90.1
-180.2
-279.3
-323.4
-367.6
-411.7
-446.6
-481.4
-519.7
-580.2
-640.6
-707.1
-750.1
-793.0
-827.4
-807.1
-786.8
-764.5
Mm3
-764.5
Water withdrawal, including forecast
m3/sec
104.1
94.1
88.3
57.2
18.0
3.0
27.6
83.3
140.3
220.8
221.9
222.3
37.0
11.0
11.0
89.5
149.0
173.5
Mm3
1565.7
actual
m3/sec
167.7
185.4
152.9
150.1
96.1
79.1
53.5
60.1
95.4
145.2
200.2
181.4
165.3
88.0
47.8
10.0
18.7
151.8
Mm3
1811.8
variance
%
-61.1
-97.1
-73.1
-162.4
-433.6
-2535.3
-93.8
27.9
32.0
34.3
9.8
18.4
-346.8
-700.0
-334.2
88.8
87.4
12.5
%
-15.7
Mm3
-54.9
-133.8
-195.2
-275.5
-342.9
-408.6
-431.0
-411.0
-368.2
-302.9
-284.1
-245.3
-356.1
-422.7
-448.1
-379.4
-266.8
-246.1
Mm3
-246.1
Kazakhstan forecast
m3/sec
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.0
60.0
110.0
110.0
110.0
26.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
400.0
actual
m3/sec
7.6
15.3
17.9
12.9
2.7
2.2
10.1
17.9
44.1
67.7
92.7
89.7
76.5
16.7
5.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
426.4
variance
%
              
40.2
26.6
38.5
15.7
18.5
-194.2
          
%
-6.6
Mm3
-6.6
-19.8
-36.7
-47.9
-50.2
-52.1
-60.9
-50.5
-35.3
1.3
16.2
35.5
-8.1
-22.5
-26.4
-26.4
-26.4
-26.4
Mm3
-26.4
Tadjikistan forecast
m3/sec
30.0
20.8
16.0
8.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
28.0
29.0
32.0
Mm3
165.7
actual
m3/sec
25.7
28.0
16.6
10.7
7.1
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
78.3
variance
%
14.5
-34.8
-3.4
-21.7
                
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
%
52.7
Mm3
3.7
-2.5
-3.0
-4.7
-10.8
-11.6
-11.6
-11.6
-11.6
-11.6
-11.6
-11.6
-4.7
2.2
7.7
31.9
57.0
87.4
Mm3
87.4
Uzbekistan forecast
m3/sec
74.1
73.3
72.3
48.4
18.0
3.0
27.6
53.3
80.3
110.8
111.9
112.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
61.5
120.0
141.5
Mm3
999.9
actual
m3/sec
134.4
142.1
118.5
126.5
86.3
75.9
43.4
42.2
51.3
77.5
107.5
91.7
88.8
71.3
42.1
10.0
18.7
151.8
Mm3
1307.0
variance
%
-81.3
-93.9
-63.9
-161.4
-379.2
-2428.3
-57.1
20.9
36.1
30.1
3.9
18.3
-2860.7
-2276.7
-1304.3
83.7
84.4
-7.2
%
-30.7
Mm3
-52.1
-111.6
-155.4
-222.9
-281.9
-344.9
-358.5
-348.9
-321.3
-292.5
-288.7
-269.2
-343.3
-402.3
-429.4
-384.9
-297.4
-307.1
Mm3
-307.1
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]