Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Toktagul-Kayrakum site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1994-1995

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir
 forecast
m3/sec
300.0
300.0
300.0
400.0
400.0
400.0
500.0
500.0
500.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
600.0
600.0
600.0
600.0
600.0
600.0
Mm3
7711.2
actual
m3/sec
275.1
307.3
398.6
377.4
371.6
353.8
532.3
586.7
619.9
617.6
650.3
628.1
594.3
606.3
646.3
647.7
658.1
570.0
Mm3
8237.2
variance
%
8.3
-2.4
-32.9
5.7
7.1
11.6
-6.5
-17.3
-24.0
-12.3
-18.2
-14.2
1.0
-1.0
-7.7
-8.0
-9.7
5.0
%
-6.8
Mm3
21.5
15.2
-78.5
-59.0
-34.5
5.4
-22.5
-97.4
-211.3
-269.7
-356.4
-430.6
-425.7
-431.1
-463.1
-504.3
-554.5
-526.0
Mm3
-526.0
Lateral inflow
 forecast
m3/sec
374.0
374.0
374.0
373.0
373.0
373.0
345.0
345.0
345.0
373.0
373.0
373.0
407.0
407.0
407.0
407.0
407.0
407.0
Mm3
5966.4
actual
m3/sec
454.0
454.0
454.0
497.0
497.0
497.0
427.0
427.0
427.0
497.0
497.0
497.0
445.0
445.0
445.0
328.0
328.0
328.0
Mm3
6934.1
variance
%
-21.4
-21.4
-21.4
-33.2
-33.2
-33.2
-23.8
-23.8
-23.8
-33.2
-33.2
-33.2
-9.3
-9.3
-9.3
19.4
19.4
19.4
%
-16.2
Mm3
-69.1
-138.2
-214.3
-321.4
-428.5
-535.7
-606.5
-677.4
-755.3
-862.4
-969.6
-1087.4
-1120.3
-1153.1
-1179.4
-1111.1
-1042.8
-967.8
Mm3
-967.8
Water withdrawal, including
forecast
m3/sec
125.1
113.1
93.3
9.3
5.7
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
53.0
97.0
133.0
118.0
135.0
132.0
159.2
174.5
194.0
Mm3
1373.2
actual
m3/sec
113.2
120.4
97.6
19.0
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
39.1
53.1
72.2
88.1
107.4
107.3
108.4
140.0
195.3
Mm3
1134.5
variance
%
9.5
-6.4
-4.6
-104.7
-30.5
-44.0
-44.0
-44.0
52.0
26.2
45.3
45.7
25.3
20.5
18.7
31.9
19.8
-0.7
%
17.4
Mm3
10.3
4.0
0.0
-8.5
-10.0
-11.9
-13.8
-15.7
-8.3
3.7
41.7
99.4
125.2
149.1
166.2
210.1
239.9
238.6
Mm3
238.6
Kyrgyzstan
 forecast
m3/sec
4.6
4.1
3.3
2.5
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
3.5
4.0
Mm3
21.3
actual
m3/sec
3.7
2.9
2.7
1.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
Mm3
11.0
variance
%
19.1
30.2
17.9
48.0
65.7
                    
100.0
97.7
86.3
%
48.3
Mm3
0.8
1.8
2.4
3.4
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.1
7.0
10.3
Mm3
10.3
Tadjikistan
 forecast
m3/sec
17.0
11.0
8.0
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
22.0
25.0
28.0
Mm3
104.7
actual
m3/sec
19.2
14.7
16.1
7.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
4.0
2.0
4.6
7.5
8.2
9.6
10.1
11.8
Mm3
102.9
variance
%
-12.8
-33.5
-101.3
-333.9
                    
-36.8
56.3
59.8
57.8
%
1.8
Mm3
-1.9
-5.1
-12.8
-17.9
-18.6
-18.6
-18.6
-18.6
-18.6
-19.8
-23.2
-25.2
-29.2
-35.6
-37.1
-26.4
-13.5
1.9
Mm3
1.9
Uzbekistan
 forecast
m3/sec
103.5
98.0
82.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
53.0
97.0
133.0
118.0
135.0
126.0
136.0
146.0
162.0
Mm3
1247.2
actual
m3/sec
90.3
102.8
78.8
9.9
6.4
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
37.7
49.1
70.2
83.5
99.9
99.1
98.8
129.9
183.0
Mm3
1020.7
variance
%
12.7
-4.9
4.0
-98.6
-28.0
-40.0
-40.0
-40.0
53.3
28.8
49.4
47.2
29.2
26.0
21.4
27.4
11.0
-12.9
%
18.2
Mm3
11.4
7.2
10.3
6.1
4.8
3.1
1.4
-0.3
7.3
20.5
61.9
121.6
151.4
181.7
200.3
232.5
246.4
226.5
Mm3
226.5
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]