Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Kayrakum-Chardara site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1995-1996

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir forecast
m3/sec
440.0
472.0
509.0
539.0
594.0
653.0
695.0
745.0
760.0
796.0
783.0
796.0
758.0
749.0
728.0
686.0
594.0
581.0
Mm3
10365.4
actual
m3/sec
200.0
200.0
345.8
450.0
401.5
550.0
682.2
792.8
764.4
716.6
651.7
650.0
730.0
702.2
960.1
1077.1
800.0
790.9
Mm3
9960.5
variance
%
54.5
57.6
32.1
16.5
32.4
15.8
1.8
-6.4
-0.6
10.0
16.8
18.3
3.7
6.2
-31.9
-57.0
-34.7
-36.1
%
3.9
Mm3
207.4
442.4
597.5
674.4
840.7
929.7
940.7
899.4
895.3
963.9
1077.3
1216.1
1240.3
1280.7
1120.3
782.4
604.4
404.9
Mm3
404.9
Lateral inflow forecast
m3/sec
202.0
202.0
202.0
197.0
197.0
197.0
216.0
216.0
216.0
209.0
209.0
209.0
224.0
224.0
224.0
256.0
256.0
256.0
Mm3
3417.6
actual
m3/sec
202.2
202.2
202.2
256.4
256.4
256.4
243.9
243.9
243.9
435.6
435.6
435.6
353.8
353.8
353.8
353.7
353.7
353.7
Mm3
4829.3
variance
%
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-30.1
-30.1
-30.1
-12.9
-12.9
-12.9
-108.4
-108.4
-108.4
-58.0
-58.0
-58.0
-38.2
-38.2
-38.2
%
-41.3
Mm3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-51.8
-103.1
-154.4
-178.5
-202.5
-229.0
-424.8
-620.6
-835.9
-948.1
-1060.3
-1150.1
-1234.5
-1318.9
-1411.7
Mm3
-1411.7
Water withdrawal, including forecast
m3/sec
104.1
94.1
88.3
57.2
18.0
3.0
57.6
113.3
180.3
210.8
211.9
137.3
11.0
11.0
11.0
89.5
149.0
172.9
Mm3
1534.4
actual
m3/sec
155.7
147.9
141.9
180.4
208.4
196.9
132.7
46.4
58.6
100.2
171.2
173.3
168.0
106.7
55.8
19.7
7.8
29.0
Mm3
1839.8
variance
%
-49.6
-57.2
-60.7
-215.4
-1057.8
-6463.3
-130.3
59.0
67.5
52.5
19.2
-26.2
-1427.0
-869.5
-407.4
78.0
94.8
83.3
%
-19.9
Mm3
-44.6
-91.1
-142.0
-248.4
-412.9
-580.5
-645.3
-587.5
-471.8
-376.3
-341.1
-375.3
-510.9
-593.5
-624.5
-564.1
-442.2
-305.4
Mm3
-305.4
Kazakhstan forecast
m3/sec
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.0
60.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
369.4
actual
m3/sec
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
4.8
7.7
21.7
41.1
53.6
70.5
69.9
74.5
65.9
28.0
7.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
397.6
variance
%
            
27.7
31.5
46.5
29.5
30.1
-198.2
            
%
-7.6
Mm3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.9
-7.1
-13.8
-6.6
9.7
53.9
79.4
105.4
58.3
1.4
-22.8
-28.2
-28.2
-28.2
-28.2
Mm3
-28.2
Tadjikistan forecast
m3/sec
30.0
20.8
16.0
8.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
28.0
29.0
32.0
Mm3
165.7
actual
m3/sec
36.5
33.6
20.6
15.6
16.4
5.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
112.3
variance
%
-21.7
-61.5
-28.9
-77.3
                
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
%
32.3
Mm3
-5.6
-16.7
-21.1
-26.9
-41.1
-45.4
-45.6
-45.6
-45.6
-45.6
-45.6
-45.6
-38.7
-31.7
-26.2
-2.0
23.0
53.4
Mm3
53.4
Uzbekistan forecast
m3/sec
74.1
73.3
72.3
48.4
18.0
3.0
27.6
53.3
80.3
110.8
111.9
112.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
61.5
120.0
140.9
Mm3
999.4
actual
m3/sec
119.2
114.3
121.3
161.4
187.2
184.2
110.8
5.3
5.0
29.7
101.3
98.7
102.1
78.6
47.9
19.7
7.8
29.0
Mm3
1329.9
variance
%
-60.9
-55.9
-67.7
-233.5
-939.8
-6039.3
-301.4
90.0
93.8
73.2
9.5
12.1
-3303.3
-2520.7
-1497.3
68.0
93.5
79.4
%
-33.1
Mm3
-39.0
-74.4
-120.9
-218.6
-364.7
-521.3
-593.2
-551.7
-480.1
-410.1
-400.9
-388.0
-473.7
-539.0
-570.0
-533.9
-436.9
-330.6
Mm3
-330.6
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]