Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Nurek-Tuyamuyn site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1995-1996

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir
 forecast
m3/sec
400.0
400.0
400.0
450.0
450.0
450.0
500.0
500.0
500.0
571.0
571.0
571.0
623.0
623.0
623.0
420.0
420.0
420.0
Mm3
7738.4
actual
m3/sec
515.7
525.9
555.4
554.8
518.3
488.3
484.5
497.4
474.4
491.3
537.1
550.7
543.1
563.0
486.4
428.2
449.6
347.5
Mm3
7868.6
variance
%
-28.9
-31.5
-38.8
-23.3
-15.2
-8.5
3.1
0.5
5.1
14.0
5.9
3.6
12.8
9.6
21.9
-2.0
-7.0
17.3
%
-1.7
Mm3
-100.0
-208.7
-356.4
-446.9
-506.0
-539.0
-525.7
-523.4
-499.0
-430.2
-400.9
-381.6
-312.6
-260.8
-166.4
-173.5
-199.0
-130.2
Mm3
-130.2
Lateral inflow
 forecast
m3/sec
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
Mm3
813.0
actual
m3/sec
42.0
43.1
41.9
41.0
39.5
38.8
38.3
36.9
34.8
39.2
34.4
33.5
47.2
55.0
62.2
81.7
83.5
87.1
Mm3
766.7
variance
%
16.0
13.8
16.2
18.0
21.0
22.4
4.3
7.8
13.0
2.0
14.0
16.3
5.6
-10.0
-24.4
-2.1
-4.4
-8.9
%
5.7
Mm3
6.9
12.9
20.6
28.3
37.4
47.1
48.6
51.2
56.2
56.9
61.7
67.9
70.3
66.0
57.6
56.1
53.1
46.3
Mm3
46.3
Water withdrawal, including
forecast
m3/sec
921.8
909.0
792.5
708.3
628.9
574.2
503.0
486.8
510.2
574.2
659.0
680.0
619.5
781.5
869.1
948.8
1014.4
963.1
Mm3
11461.0
actual
m3/sec
900.0
785.8
743.9
643.9
648.6
583.2
502.3
394.0
535.2
554.0
540.6
576.9
610.9
698.3
770.9
808.3
837.8
802.5
Mm3
10410.1
variance
%
2.4
13.6
6.1
9.1
-3.1
-1.6
0.1
19.1
-4.9
3.5
18.0
15.2
1.4
10.6
11.3
14.8
17.4
16.7
%
9.2
Mm3
18.8
125.3
171.5
227.1
210.1
202.3
202.9
283.1
259.3
276.8
379.1
477.1
484.5
556.4
624.3
745.7
898.2
1050.9
Mm3
1050.9
Tadjikistan
 forecast
m3/sec
273.8
267.0
231.5
227.1
223.7
212.0
177.7
166.5
158.9
153.9
154.7
156.7
159.5
180.5
205.7
239.3
268.4
241.9
Mm3
3228.4
actual
m3/sec
244.8
212.8
173.5
171.7
175.8
139.9
107.1
87.1
110.6
103.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.4
106.4
116.4
116.4
132.1
Mm3
2103.1
variance
%
10.6
20.3
25.1
24.4
21.4
34.0
39.7
47.7
30.4
32.7
34.5
35.3
36.4
43.8
48.3
51.4
56.6
45.4
%
34.9
Mm3
25.1
71.9
127.0
174.9
216.3
278.6
339.6
408.2
454.1
497.6
543.7
596.2
646.4
714.8
783.4
889.6
1020.9
1125.3
Mm3
1125.3
Turkmenistan
 forecast
m3/sec
335.0
339.0
324.0
292.2
277.2
252.2
215.3
210.3
205.3
200.0
204.0
220.0
288.0
304.0
366.4
409.5
443.0
458.6
Mm3
4658.3
actual
m3/sec
399.4
325.7
330.3
292.3
279.4
253.7
239.9
206.9
205.3
204.2
200.0
208.4
241.4
293.2
338.2
364.4
412.9
387.0
Mm3
4517.0
variance
%
-19.2
3.9
-1.9
0.0
-0.8
-0.6
-11.4
1.6
0.0
-2.1
2.0
5.3
16.2
3.6
7.7
11.0
6.8
15.6
%
3.0
Mm3
-55.6
-44.2
-50.1
-50.2
-52.1
-53.4
-74.7
-71.7
-71.7
-75.4
-71.9
-60.9
-20.6
-11.3
8.2
47.2
73.2
141.2
Mm3
141.2
Uzbekistan
 forecast
m3/sec
313.0
303.0
237.0
189.0
128.0
110.0
110.0
110.0
146.0
220.3
300.3
303.3
172.0
297.0
297.0
300.0
303.0
262.6
Mm3
3574.4
actual
m3/sec
255.8
247.3
240.1
179.9
193.4
189.6
155.3
100.0
219.3
246.3
239.2
267.1
268.1
303.7
326.3
327.5
308.5
283.4
Mm3
3790.0
variance
%
18.3
18.4
-1.3
4.8
-51.1
-72.4
-41.2
9.1
-50.2
-11.8
20.3
11.9
-55.9
-2.3
-9.9
-9.2
-1.8
-7.9
%
-6.0
Mm3
49.4
97.5
94.6
102.5
46.0
-22.8
-62.0
-53.3
-123.0
-145.4
-92.7
-58.3
-141.3
-147.1
-167.3
-191.1
-195.8
-215.6
Mm3
-215.6
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]