Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Toktagul-Kayrakum site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1995-1996

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir
 forecast
m3/sec
292.0
318.0
341.0
358.0
378.0
407.0
432.0
456.0
483.0
487.0
489.0
489.0
485.0
477.0
464.0
444.0
421.0
395.0
Mm3
6647.6
actual
m3/sec
220.3
272.0
398.8
317.0
429.3
436.7
608.9
662.5
630.5
587.8
682.3
617.9
482.2
653.9
651.7
588.4
501.1
511.0
Mm3
8067.9
variance
%
24.6
14.5
-17.0
11.5
-13.6
-7.3
-40.9
-45.3
-30.5
-20.7
-39.5
-26.4
0.6
-37.1
-40.4
-32.5
-19.0
-29.4
%
-21.4
Mm3
61.9
101.7
46.7
82.2
37.8
12.2
-140.7
-319.1
-459.3
-546.4
-713.4
-835.9
-833.5
-986.3
-1116.1
-1240.8
-1310.0
-1420.3
Mm3
-1420.3
Lateral inflow
 forecast
m3/sec
378.0
378.0
378.0
376.0
376.0
376.0
346.0
346.0
346.0
386.0
386.0
386.0
425.0
425.0
425.0
417.0
417.0
417.0
Mm3
6092.7
actual
m3/sec
459.0
459.0
459.0
476.0
476.0
476.0
457.0
457.0
457.0
674.0
674.0
674.0
550.0
550.0
550.0
483.0
483.0
483.0
Mm3
8116.7
variance
%
-21.4
-21.4
-21.4
-26.6
-26.6
-26.6
-32.1
-32.1
-32.1
-74.6
-74.6
-74.6
-29.4
-29.4
-29.4
-15.8
-15.8
-15.8
%
-33.2
Mm3
-70.0
-140.0
-217.0
-303.4
-389.8
-476.2
-572.1
-668.0
-773.5
-1022.3
-1271.1
-1544.8
-1652.8
-1760.8
-1847.2
-1904.3
-1961.3
-2024.0
Mm3
-2024.0
Water withdrawal, including
forecast
m3/sec
125.1
114.1
93.3
9.3
5.7
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
53.0
97.0
133.0
118.0
135.0
132.0
159.2
180.0
197.4
Mm3
1382.0
actual
m3/sec
159.5
171.3
139.1
57.0
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.1
37.9
88.5
107.0
107.0
106.9
79.7
62.9
66.9
165.4
228.9
Mm3
1421.6
variance
%
-27.5
-50.2
-49.1
-512.9
-26.3
-44.0
-44.0
-42.8
-152.7
-67.0
-10.3
19.5
9.4
41.0
52.3
58.0
8.1
-16.0
%
-2.9
Mm3
-29.7
-79.2
-122.7
-163.9
-165.2
-167.1
-169.0
-170.8
-192.6
-223.3
-231.9
-207.2
-197.6
-149.8
-102.0
-22.3
-9.6
-39.6
Mm3
-39.6
Kyrgyzstan
 forecast
m3/sec
4.6
4.1
3.3
2.5
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
3.0
3.4
Mm3
20.3
actual
m3/sec
5.1
3.1
3.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
Mm3
11.5
variance
%
-10.0
23.9
9.1
100.0
71.4
                    
100.0
99.0
72.9
%
43.5
Mm3
-0.4
0.4
0.7
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.9
6.5
8.8
Mm3
8.8
Tadjikistan
 forecast
m3/sec
17.0
11.0
8.0
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
22.0
25.0
28.0
Mm3
104.7
actual
m3/sec
15.9
13.7
11.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.9
6.1
8.9
10.6
11.7
11.9
11.3
12.0
Mm3
102.5
variance
%
6.3
-24.6
-41.6
3.3
                    
-95.3
45.9
54.9
57.1
%
2.1
Mm3
0.9
-1.4
-4.6
-4.5
-4.5
-4.5
-4.5
-4.5
-4.5
-5.4
-7.0
-12.8
-20.4
-29.6
-33.5
-24.8
-13.0
2.2
Mm3
2.2
Uzbekistan
 forecast
m3/sec
103.5
99.0
82.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
53.0
97.0
133.0
118.0
135.0
126.0
136.0
152.0
166.0
Mm3
1257.0
actual
m3/sec
138.5
154.5
124.7
55.3
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
37.9
87.6
105.1
100.9
98.0
69.0
51.2
55.0
154.1
216.0
Mm3
1307.7
variance
%
-33.8
-56.1
-52.1
-1005.2
-40.0
-40.0
-40.0
-40.0
-152.7
-65.2
-8.4
24.1
16.9
48.9
59.4
59.6
-1.3
-30.1
%
-4.0
Mm3
-30.2
-78.2
-118.8
-162.2
-164.0
-165.7
-167.4
-169.1
-190.9
-220.8
-227.8
-197.3
-180.0
-123.0
-71.3
-1.3
-3.1
-50.6
Mm3
-50.6
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]