Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Toktagul-Kayrakum site.Comparison of planned and actual values for vegetation period 1995

Parametres
April
May
June
July
August
September
For vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir
forecast
m3/sec
386.0
356.0
315.0
315.0
339.0
410.0
520.0
614.0
712.0
831.0
902.0
910.7
722.0
431.0
292.0
240.0
247.0
244.0
Mm3
7731.1
actual
m3/sec
425.8
386.5
262.0
192.8
210.9
272.9
270.8
301.8
598.0
726.7
779.6
910.7
680.7
356.1
207.3
164.5
198.4
193.2
Mm3
6288.0
variance
%
-10.3
-8.6
16.8
38.8
37.8
33.4
47.9
50.8
16.0
12.6
13.6
0.0
5.7
17.4
29.0
31.5
19.7
20.8
%
18.7
Mm3
-34.4
-60.7
-14.9
90.6
201.3
331.6
546.9
816.7
915.1
1005.3
1111.0
1111.0
1146.7
1211.4
1291.9
1357.2
1399.2
1443.1
Mm3
1443.1
Lateral inflow
forecast
m3/sec
518.0
518.0
518.0
569.0
569.0
569.0
461.0
461.0
461.0
387.0
387.0
387.0
392.0
392.0
392.0
354.0
354.0
354.0
Mm3
7065.6
actual
m3/sec
356.4
356.4
356.4
314.8
314.8
314.8
307.0
307.0
307.0
366.0
366.0
366.0
381.0
381.0
381.0
415.0
415.0
415.0
Mm3
5639.1
variance
%
31.2
31.2
31.2
44.7
44.7
44.7
33.4
33.4
33.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
-17.2
-17.2
-17.2
%
20.2
Mm3
139.6
279.2
418.9
638.5
858.1
1099.7
1232.8
1365.8
1498.9
1517.0
1535.2
1555.1
1564.6
1574.1
1584.6
1531.9
1479.2
1426.5
Mm3
1426.5
Water withdrawal, including
forecast
m3/sec
210.4
227.4
204.1
201.2
200.3
216.2
270.6
311.4
334.4
321.7
333.1
338.1
305.3
266.1
205.2
151.0
107.1
86.7
Mm3
3772.3
actual
m3/sec
205.2
202.8
170.9
169.8
212.2
252.9
301.5
360.6
397.1
447.2
427.5
417.6
383.1
281.2
232.9
148.5
122.3
145.8
Mm3
4293.4
variance
%
2.5
10.8
16.2
15.6
-6.0
-16.9
-11.4
-15.8
-18.8
-39.0
-28.4
-23.5
-25.5
-5.7
-13.5
1.6
-14.2
-68.2
%
-13.8
Mm3
4.5
25.8
54.4
81.6
71.3
36.5
9.8
-32.7
-86.9
-195.3
-276.9
-352.5
-419.6
-432.7
-459.0
-457.0
-470.1
-521.2
Mm3
-521.2
Kyrgyzstan
forecast
m3/sec
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.6
10.7
12.9
15.9
15.7
16.3
15.1
15.1
14.5
14.6
13.1
12.9
10.2
7.9
6.9
Mm3
186.1
actual
m3/sec
1.6
1.7
4.3
5.1
6.0
7.7
9.8
13.3
13.7
18.3
19.0
19.8
17.6
17.1
15.8
9.4
9.5
9.3
Mm3
175.6
variance
%
72.8
73.0
44.7
47.1
43.5
40.4
38.6
15.4
16.1
-21.4
-25.7
-36.7
-20.5
-30.4
-22.8
7.7
-19.8
-33.9
%
5.6
Mm3
3.6
7.6
10.6
14.5
18.6
23.5
28.8
30.9
33.2
30.4
27.0
22.0
19.4
16.0
13.2
13.8
12.5
10.5
Mm3
10.5
Tadjikistan
forecast
m3/sec
23.0
31.0
35.0
41.0
46.0
48.0
58.0
62.0
62.0
36.1
36.1
32.7
32.1
30.3
25.8
18.9
14.3
9.7
Mm3
563.8
actual
m3/sec
21.6
29.4
33.1
37.8
43.0
47.3
51.3
57.3
59.2
61.0
60.8
57.2
50.7
42.9
33.8
24.7
15.4
14.7
Mm3
652.2
variance
%
6.3
5.2
5.5
7.8
6.5
1.5
11.6
7.6
4.5
-68.9
-68.6
-75.1
-58.1
-41.5
-31.3
-30.7
-7.9
-51.1
%
-15.7
Mm3
1.3
2.7
4.3
7.1
9.7
10.4
16.2
20.3
22.7
1.2
-20.2
-43.5
-59.6
-70.4
-78.1
-83.1
-84.1
-88.4
Mm3
-88.4
Uzbekistan
forecast
m3/sec
181.6
190.1
161.3
150.6
143.6
155.3
196.7
233.7
256.1
270.6
281.9
291.0
258.6
222.6
166.5
121.8
84.9
70.0
Mm3
3022.4
actual
m3/sec
182.0
171.7
133.6
126.9
163.2
197.9
240.4
290.1
324.2
367.9
347.7
340.6
314.7
221.2
183.2
114.4
97.3
121.8
Mm3
3465.6
variance
%
-0.2
9.7
17.2
15.8
-13.6
-27.4
-22.2
-24.1
-26.6
-36.0
-23.4
-17.1
-21.7
0.6
-10.0
6.1
-14.7
-74.0
%
-14.7
Mm3
-0.4
15.5
39.5
60.0
43.1
2.6
-35.2
-83.9
-142.8
-226.9
-283.8
-331.0
-379.5
-378.2
-394.1
-387.7
-398.5
-443.2
Mm3
-443.2
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]