Volumes of releases, lateral inflow and water withdrawals at the Kayrakum-Chardara site.Comparison of planned and actual values for non-vegetation period 1997-1998

Parametres
October
November
December
January
February
March
for non-vegetation
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
I
II
III
Release from reservoir forecast
m3/sec
440.0
472.0
509.0
560.0
632.0
703.0
741.0
825.0
846.0
855.0
859.0
855.0
855.0
840.0
825.0
741.0
653.0
581.0
Mm3
11150.9
actual
m3/sec
199.3
214.7
344.3
450.0
483.7
524.8
585.6
643.7
698.4
878.3
866.8
793.0
865.0
860.1
948.0
1057.3
1049.3
825.2
Mm3
10682.4
variance
%
54.7
54.5
32.4
19.6
23.5
25.3
21.0
22.0
17.5
-2.7
-0.9
7.3
-1.2
-2.4
-14.9
-42.7
-60.7
-42.0
%
4.2
Mm3
208.0
430.3
586.8
681.9
810.0
964.0
1098.2
1254.9
1395.2
1375.1
1368.3
1427.2
1418.6
1401.2
1316.2
1042.9
700.5
468.5
Mm3
468.5
Lateral inflow forecast
m3/sec
195.0
195.0
195.0
221.0
221.0
221.0
211.0
211.0
211.0
203.0
203.0
203.0
215.0
215.0
215.0
246.0
246.0
246.0
Mm3
3383.0
actual
m3/sec
297.8
297.8
297.8
477.5
477.5
477.5
541.4
541.4
541.4
656.9
656.9
656.9
789.8
789.8
789.8
554.5
554.5
554.5
Mm3
8640.5
variance
%
-52.7
-52.7
-52.7
-116.1
-116.1
-116.1
-156.6
-156.6
-156.6
-223.6
-223.6
-223.6
-267.3
-267.3
-267.3
-125.4
-125.4
-125.4
%
-155.4
Mm3
-88.8
-177.6
-275.2
-496.9
-718.5
-940.1
-1225.6
-1511.0
-1825.0
-2217.1
-2609.3
-3040.6
-3537.3
-4033.9
-4431.2
-4697.7
-4964.3
-5257.5
Mm3
-5257.5
Water withdrawal, including forecast
m3/sec
140.2
127.4
119.5
88.3
79.9
6.4
82.9
111.6
151.4
151.5
151.4
76.4
2.6
10.5
57.3
124.5
140.9
164.9
Mm3
1578.7
actual
m3/sec
209.0
219.4
275.9
275.8
239.5
200.3
148.9
174.2
121.1
159.5
210.7
225.1
201.6
160.9
77.9
44.1
43.9
91.9
Mm3
2709.0
variance
%
-49.1
-72.3
-130.8
-212.3
-199.7
-3029.7
-79.6
-56.1
20.0
-5.3
-39.2
-194.6
-7653.8
-1432.4
-35.9
64.6
68.8
44.2
%
-71.6
Mm3
-59.5
-139.0
-287.6
-449.6
-587.5
-755.0
-812.1
-866.1
-837.3
-844.2
-895.5
-1036.8
-1208.7
-1338.7
-1352.9
-1283.5
-1199.7
-1130.3
Mm3
-1130.3
Kazakhstan forecast
m3/sec
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.0
60.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mm3
369.4
actual
m3/sec
0.3
0.7
5.2
6.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
9.3
23.8
50.2
74.3
75.6
67.5
45.8
14.0
0.6
0.0
Mm3
334.2
variance
%
            
88.6
94.5
90.7
76.2
49.8
-197.1
            
%
9.5
Mm3
-0.3
-0.9
-5.8
-11.4
-14.3
-17.2
5.8
54.8
141.0
206.8
249.8
203.0
137.6
79.4
47.7
35.7
35.1
35.1
Mm3
35.1
Tadjikistan forecast
m3/sec
36.0
28.0
26.0
14.0
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
22.0
32.0
32.0
35.0
Mm3
208.0
actual
m3/sec
43.8
47.1
34.9
7.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
Mm3
140.3
variance
%
-21.7
-68.2
-34.0
49.3
66.7
                
75.0
90.9
93.8
93.8
100.0
%
32.6
Mm3
-6.7
-23.2
-31.7
-25.7
-22.2
-24.0
-25.7
-27.4
-29.3
-31.0
-32.8
-34.7
-36.4
-31.2
-17.4
8.5
34.4
67.7
Mm3
67.7
Uzbekistan forecast
m3/sec
104.2
99.4
93.5
74.3
73.9
6.4
52.9
51.6
51.4
51.5
51.4
51.4
2.6
2.5
35.3
92.5
108.9
129.9
Mm3
1001.4
actual
m3/sec
164.9
171.6
235.8
262.3
234.1
195.0
143.5
168.9
109.8
133.7
158.5
148.8
124.0
91.5
30.1
28.1
41.3
91.9
Mm3
2234.5
variance
%
-58.3
-72.7
-152.2
-253.1
-216.7
-2946.7
-171.2
-227.3
-113.6
-159.6
-208.3
-189.5
-4667.7
-3558.0
14.6
69.6
62.1
29.2
%
-123.1
Mm3
-52.5
-114.9
-250.1
-412.6
-550.9
-713.9
-792.2
-893.5
-949.0
-1020.0
-1112.5
-1205.1
-1310.0
-1386.8
-1383.2
-1327.6
-1269.2
-1233.2
Mm3
-1233.2
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of release, lateral inflow and water withdrawal
Diagram of variances between planned and actual values of water withdrawal by states
Note: variance is calculated using the followingformula: 100 * (planned [predicted] - actual) / planned [predicted]