News	Events	Sites	Database	Knowledge Base	Forum

По-русски The Aral Sea Basin Management Model

The main objective of the Aral Sea Basin Management Model (ASB-MM) is to enable decision-makers to evaluate correctness and timeliness of the made decision, and also to show, what consequences it can cause. This is achieved by “playing out” various versions of development of Aral Sea basin countries separately as well as the entire region for defining the possibility of economic and social development in the future, taking into account available water resources use and Aral Sea and Priaralie ecological requirements satisfaction. ASB-MM consists of Hydrological Model, Socio-Economic Model, Planning Zone Model, and Aral Sea Model. ASB-MM structure Socio-Economic Model tries to predict what will happen to socio-economic system in compliance with the following main parameters: population (rural and urban); economy (GNP, GNP per capita, contribution of each production sector to GNP); water (demand of each production sector; its availability is calculated by Hydrological Model); agriculture (irrigated lands productivity for each technical or food crop); investments (amount of investments in agriculture, direct foreign investments); power (production and consumption); food (production and consumption in calories, taking into account consumer basket); evaluation of climate change impact on water resources and agricultural production. Socio-Economic Model Structure Hydrological model reflects the processes of Syrdarya and Amudarya river water resources formation, regulation and use, allows in imitation and optimization regimes for 20 years ahead: to evaluate development scenarios of the region's countries in accordance with “requirements for water — available water resources”; to act out the versions of reservoirs management in compliance with the selected criteria and limits; to calculate water balances of rivers, reservoirs, and lakes. Hydrological scheme of model includes Naryn, Karadarya, Akhangaran, Chirchik, Keles, Arys, Syrdarya, Vakhsh Pyanj, Kafirnigan, Surkhandarya Amudarya, Zaravshan. Hydrological scheme of model does not include Kashkadarya basin rivers, the rivers in Turkmenistan (Murgab, Tejen, Atrek), inland rivers in Afghanistan, and also some local sources of Syrdarya basin (Isfara, Shakhimardan, Sokh, etc.).

The following versions of the Aral Sea basin development were calculated on socio-economic model:   Optimistic scenario   Business as usual scenario   National visions Comparison of the prospective development scenarios, taking and not taking into account climatic changes impact, shows that climatic changes impact will have a positive effect on food availability degree — about 5-7 % of growth on an average due to insignificant increase in the main crop yields, but at the same time the increase of requirements for water resources by 1-2 % a year is observed in all the scenarios. ASB-MM interface ASB-MM interface Socio-Economic Model interface