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ASB-MM: Optimistic scenario


It supposes integrated regional development, supported by all the states, including:

  • Mutually beneficial transboundary water resources use on the basis of water saving and common nature conservation approaches;
  • Mutually beneficial development of agricultural sector, maximally focusing on regional specialization in agricultural production;
  • Maximally drawing nearer to potential water and land productivity;
  • Economic growth is provided mainly owing to the development of industry and service sector.

Population growth rate has a tendency to decline and will be 0.98 % per year in 2020.

Regional integration degree: High

Specific water use — 9.4 x 1000 m3/ha

GNP growth rate:

  • 2000-2010 — 4-6 %
  • 2010-2015 — 6-10 %
  • 2015-2020 — ~5 %

Specific water use in drinking water supply 0.08 m3 per capita per year (220 liter/day)

The calculated regional development dynamics are given in the graphs.