News

Events

Sites

Database

Knowledge Base

Forum

News of water sector

WATER FOR OUR FUTURE: WHAT ARE THE TRENDS? In a world experiencing great population growth and ever increasing water use, our concern about the future is very understandable. Global trends are not optimistic, and show increasing environmental, social, and economic difficulties as a result of the many competing pressures on our natural resources. The themes chosen this year for World Water Day and World Meteorological Day (22 and 23 March respectively) sound the alarm: both emphasize the future ('Water for the future', 'Our future climate'). What is needed to reach the goals that the international community has set for itself by 2015? What water projections are the scientists making for the the next twenty, fifty years? What are the regions most threatened by water stress? What are the likely impacts of climate change on water? These are some of the issues raised when we look to the future. The main pressures During the past century, the world population has tripled, and water use has increased six-fold. These changes have come at great environmental cost: half the wetlands have disappeared during the 20th century, some rivers don't reach the sea anymore, 20% of freshwater fish are endangered. These environmental consequences also entail social and economic costs.While agriculture uses more and more water every year, to meet the food demands of a growing population, other users are competing for the same water: more people means more energy required, and more hydropower. Industrialization, especially in the Western world, has had serious, and often negative, effects on water quality; currently, global markets move the most polluting industries to the developing countries, usually near cities where population growth and informal settlements already put a lot of pressure on water resources. In 2020, 60% of the world population will be urban, a concentration that makes urban water infrastructure development an extremely urgent issue. These are but some of the factors influencing the world's water resources, complicated by the fact that they are all interlinked, and can't be approached separately. Population growth in Asia 2000: 3 700 million inh. (1 350 million urban inh.) 2025: 4 740 million inh. (2 400 million urban inh.) 2050: 5 222 millions inh. Source: UN Population Division Population growth in less developed countries 2000: 4 900 million inh. 2025: 6 600 million inh. 2050: 7 700 million inh. Population growth in more developed countries 2000: 1 193 million inh. 2025: 1 241 million inh. 2050: 1 219 million inh. Water availability: what are the projections? By 2050 at least one out of four people is likely to live in countries affected by chronic or recurrent shortages of freshwater. A number of scenarios have been developed based on the most recent UN population projections: according to the most alarming projection: nearly 7 billion in 60 countries will face water scarcity by 2050 according to the lowest projection: under 2 billion people in 48 countries will face water scarcity by 2050 Water scarcity won't hit all regions the same way: Over the next two decades, population increases and growing demands are projected to push all the West Asian countries into water scarcity conditions. North and Sub-Saharan Africa are the other regions most threatened: by the year 2025, it is estimated that nearly 230 million Africans will be facing water scarcity, and 460 million will live in water-stressed countries. Water availability According to the World Water Development Report, the poorest countries in terms of water availability are: Kuwait (where 10 m3 is available per person each year) Gaza Strip (52 m3) United Arab Emirates (58 m3) Bahamas (66 m3) Qatar (94 m3) Maldives (103 m3) Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (113 m3) Saudi Arabia (118 m3) Malta (129 m3) Singapore (149 m3) The impacts of climate change According to the WMO/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), continued increases of greenhouse gases will cause the global mean temperature to rise from1.4 to 5.8°C and the sea level to rise from 9 to 88 cm by the end of the century compared to 1990 levels. Climate change actually accounts for about 20% of the global increase in water scarcity - countries that already suffer from water shortages will be hardest hit. If we don't change our habits, climate change will increasingly have impressive environmental, social and economic impacts and costs. For example: Food security: The most probable effect of a significant increase in global temperature will be a general reduction in potential crop yield in most tropical and subtropical regions. Arid lands may be the most affected, as the vegetation there is sensitive to small changes in climate. Extreme events: Droughts and floods will grow in intensity. Heavy precipitation events will also lead to more frequent landslide, avalanche and mudslide damage. Some coastal cities will be threatened by flooding. Health: tropical diseases will be found at increasingly higher latitudes. Disease vectors, such as mosquitoes, and water-borne pathogens (poorer water quality, food availability and quality) will be subject to changes. Ecosystems: While some species may increase in abundance or range, climate change will increase existing extinction risks of some more vulnerable species and lead to a consequent loss of biodiversity. Urgent action is needed: the 2015 goals In order to reverse these negative trends, the international community has defined certain water targets to be reached by 2015. Among the first priorities is the access to water supply and sanitation: these human basic needs are prerequisites for moving towards a sustainable use of our resources, and thus to controlling the negative impacts of human beings on our environment. Immense efforts will be needed in order to achieve these goals: reaching the Millennium Development Goal on access to water supply ('reduce by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water by 2015') means giving access to clean water to an additional 274,00 people each day. The equivalent target in the sanitation domain, issued from the World Summit on Sustainable Development ('reduce by half the proportion of people without access to sanitation by 2015'), means giving access to proper toilets to an additional 342,000 people each day. Attaining these targets has an enormous cost, which will probably be one of the most important challenges that the international community will have to face over the next 15 years. Information based on: The UN World Water Development Report (UN/WWAP), Our Future Climate (WMO), Vital Water Graphics (UNEP) Source: World Water Council & UNESCO, February 2005